So close with 52% of vote counted
More numbers, 52% of the vote counted. It’s so close.
Labour 29.5%, National 29.4%, Greens 13.8%, Act 10.8%, NZ First 9.6%, Opportunity 5.6%, Te Pāti Māori 0.6%.
rahulNovember 7, 20265 Mins read0
More numbers, 52% of the vote counted. It’s so close.
Labour 29.5%, National 29.4%, Greens 13.8%, Act 10.8%, NZ First 9.6%, Opportunity 5.6%, Te Pāti Māori 0.6%.
Key events
Jamie Tahana has been watching as Green party co-leader Marama Davidson addresses supporters in a central Auckland church. Davidson said the party had seen a “Green wave” of Māori support.
“It looks like about 40% of voters in the Māori seats have placed their trust in us and we do not take that lightly,” she said.
That’s true. The party is second in party votes in all seven Māori electorates, trailing Labour.
That could show Māori voters heeding Te Pāti Māori’s call for its supporters to not give them their party vote, just their electorate vote. (TPM is currently at 0.57%, which it’s claiming as a success).
But the Greens have also been pushing hard to boost its support among Māori, and in the past three years, has been one of the most vocal critics of a slew of Māori-related bills from the coalition government.
It’s also worrying for Labour, who once had a near monopoly in the Māori seats. They’re still leading in party votes in Māori seats, but their historic dominance has definitely waned.
Big news. Finance minister Nicola Willis has conceded she won’t be back in parliament, given how poorly National is doing in the party vote.
More on this soon. And some context here.
Matthew Hooton, editor of Wellington paper The Post, says there are three big winners so far tonight: Act, the Greens and Opportunity. Hooton is on Stuff’s pundit panel tonight.
The Greens are also doing very well tonight.
They have 13.7% of the party vote. They got 11.6% in 2023.
On current numbers and projections, they would get 17 seats in parliament: 3 electorate seats and 14 list seats.
In Nelson, 35-year-old hopeful Blair Cameron has taken an early lead. Cameron is vying for the seat again, after narrowly missing out on becoming a National MP in 2023 when Labour’s incumbent Rachel Boyack held on to the seat by 26 votes.
This election, with 72% of the vote counted, he leads by 878 votes. At this time of the night, a margin of less than 1000 is still considered to be a tight race.
In another election race picked as one to watch, just up the coast from Wellington in Kāpiti, young climate activist Sophie Handford is trailing National party incumbent Tim Costley. With half of that vote counted, he leads by 1,319.
NZ First plays … an Aussie classic?
Jamie Tahana has spotted that John Farnham’s You’re The Voice was blasting at the Duke of Marlborough pub in the historic settlement of Russell for the arrival of Winston Peters, the leader of the nationalist NZ First party.
His party currently sits at 9.6% of the vote, a certain return to parliament with 11 seats.
“A lot of people are getting carried away right now about what the outcome means,” he said. “It would be wise if they held their counsel a bit longer.”
“As with all good decision-making, you first need to know all the facts.”
He said it was the most difficult campaign of his extensive political career (he first entered parliament in 1979).
So, how does the current count translate into parliament seats?
National 42, Act 13, NZ First 12 = 67
Labour 35, Greens 17, Te Pāti Māori = 57
Opportunity 7
In this projected 131-seat parliament, 66 seats are needed to win power. The number of seats keeps jumping around because of the overhang issue. Read more about that here.
More numbers, 52% of the vote counted. It’s so close.
Labour 29.5%, National 29.4%, Greens 13.8%, Act 10.8%, NZ First 9.6%, Opportunity 5.6%, Te Pāti Māori 0.6%.
New Zealand First are tracking well ahead of their 2023 result.
With 52% of the party vote counted, NZ First is on 9.6%, which would give them 11 seats in parliament. In 2023 they polled just over 6%.
As you know, Michelle Duff is in Upper Hutt tonight, with the Labour faithful at the local Cosmopolitan Club; that’s in Chris Hipkins’ electorate.
Michelle has this important update on the food and vibe:
The generally buoyant atmosphere is not reflected in the food, which is majority fried and beige. “There’s no fruit,” said one punter, before standing corrected; there was, in fact, a lemon wedge.
Guests are otherwise snacking on chicken tenders and sausage rolls, listening to a playlist of New Zealand reggae hits from the 90s, and biting their nails.
Michelle Duff
Labour party candidate Barbara Edmonds has arrived at the Labour party event, hot off a campaign that has seen her gain double the votes of her closest National party contender in Kenepuru, a Wellington electorate.
Surrounded by family, she said she was thrilled to have won her electorate and increased voter turnout, and “nervously excited” about the numbers for her party so far. She wanted to see Labour with a count in the 30s. “My hopes are high, but it’s still early days.”
Will Christopher Luxon call Qiulae Wong?
Senior government minister Mark Mitchell has just offered a pretty strong hint that National has softened its stance on working with the Opportunity party.
Christopher Luxon has repeatedly ruled out working with Opportunity. But Mitchell just told TV3 that “at the end of the day it’s an MMP environment and the voters decide”.
Mitchell, one of National’s most senior ministers, added it was “too early to say” if working with the new party was possible.
No one really believed Luxon wouldn’t call Qiulae Wong if he needed her to form a government.
With National at 29.41% of the party vote, that might be starting to play out.
A bit of a surprisingly close race in the Northland city of Whangārei, normally a safe blue seat, notes Jamie Tahana.
National’s Lloyd Budd is just 206 votes ahead of Labour’s Gary Payinda, with 34% of votes counted.
The seat has always been a National seat, except for a brief switch for three years in the Jacinda Ardern-led red wave of 2020.
Jamie Tahana has this on David Seymour from a little earlier, after the leader of the libertarian Act party addressed his faithful at Auckland’s Viaduct Harbour.
Flanked by his MPs, he told a cheering crowd that it’s unlikely we’ll know who will form the next government tonight.
“This election has a few machinations, it’s fair to say the final result may not be known tonight and it may not be known until the final count is released in two Fridays time.”
Seymour looks set to win his Epsom electorate, currently 900 votes ahead of National’s Paul Goldsmith – a senior government minister who probably won’t make parliament if he doesn’t win the electorate.
But in neighbouring Tāmaki, Act looks set to lose that electorate.
A number of pundits are noting how well Act have done so far tonight, currently on 10.6%.
In 2023, Act landed 8.6% of the vote.
So, what does that mean for seats in parliament?
National 42, Act 13, NZ First 11 = 66
Labour 36, Greens 17, Te Pāti Māori 5 = 58
Opportunity 7
Excepteur sint occaecat cupidatat non proident
