Global Market Today: Asian shares slip as US stock futures dip ahead of Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech
Futures for the Nasdaq 100 Index fell 0.3% and those for the S&P 500 Index retreated 0.2% as initial enthusiasm about the artificial intelligence trade following Nvidia Corp.’s bullish outlook waned. Sentiment was weighed down by Marvell Technology Inc., which fell more than 7% in extended trading following its earnings report.
MSCI’s Asia Pacific equities gauge edged lower with shares in South Korea falling 1.3%.
Treasuries fell for a second day Thursday ahead of Warsh’s remarks, with yields rising two to three basis points across the curve amid concerns about inflation and US fiscal outlook.
US crude was steady, trading at around $83.40 a barrel amid signs that diplomatic efforts toward an agreement over the Strait of Hormuz have hit fresh hurdles. Separately, Venezuela is closely examining plans to leave OPEC, according to people familiar with the matter.
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Warsh’s speech will be key in determining whether the recent rise in bond yields has further to run, with investors looking for clues on how the Fed will balance persistent inflation pressures against signs of a cooling economy. A lack of clarity on the policy path may add to volatility in longer-maturity Treasuries and spill over into stocks.“If he does not give any framework guidance, the risk is that it will involve a much higher move in long rates,” Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
Traders also assessed fresh clues on the Fed’s policy path, including a drop in US jobless claims and rising wholesale inventories, while the merchandise trade deficit widened in July to the largest since early last year.
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said monetary policy isn’t restraining the economy. Fed policymakers left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% at their latest meeting, while futures are pricing in a quarter-point increase by year-end.
“Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole is an opportunity to contain the continued sell-off in long-end Treasuries,” wrote Dhiraj Narula, US rates strategist at HSBC. “Clarity on the Fed’s inflation reaction function could help compress uncertainty-related term premium.”
A clear policy signal will likely be scarce given Warsh’s reluctance to provide forward guidance, said Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. Instead, Warsh may preview the Fed’s five task forces’ early findings on communications, the balance sheet, economic data, productivity and jobs, and the inflation framework, he said.
In Asia, the yen hovered around 159.35 per dollar as investors remained on watch for any support by Japanese authorities. Data is due Friday from the Finance Ministry on how much the nation spent on intervention over the past month.
In other corners of the market, gold was little changed to trade around $4,600 an ounce. Bitcoin traded just over $80,000.
Elsewhere, US technology stocks rallied Thursday on Nvidia’s blockbuster outlook, lifting the major indexes even as every other sector in the US market declined.
While questions over the sustainability of AI spending may continue to fuel bouts of volatility in tech, accelerating investment in the sector may also add to inflation and upward pressure on bond yields.
“As is usually the case when tech ramps, the group is sucking oxygen from the rest of the market,” Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli wrote in a note. The “accelerating AI boom is creating upside risk for yields,” he said.
