India bonds tread water ahead of US, local inflation prints


Indian government bonds traded flat ​on Monday after last ​week’s rally as higher oil prices offset support from softer ​U.S. data, while traders looked ahead to July inflation data for India and the United States for further direction.

The benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond ended little changed at 6.7643% on ‌Monday.

Data on ⁠Friday showed ⁠that U.S. employers unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs in July, prompting traders to cut odds ​of a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike in September to 42% from 67% a week earlier.

Indel Money readies its biggest ever public sale of debt: Bankers

Indel Money is set to pursue a remarkable fundraising initiative of up to five billion rupees within this month. This forthcoming public debt offering marks the company’s most significant endeavor to date. The bonds will have maturities ranging from 400 days to six years, boasting attractive coupon rates between nine and eleven point five percent. Rated A- by India Ratings, these bonds are expected to close on August thirty-first.


Meanwhile Brent ​crude futures rose 1.4% in Asian trade to $84.75 per barrel, set to extend gains to a fourth day.
Lower Fed-hike odds support Indian ​debt, but as a major oil importer, higher ⁠crude prices ‌can ignite domestic inflation, trade balance and fiscal concerns.

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India’s ​ultra-long bonds, however, ​advanced, likely due to insurer-led value buying, traders said.
The ⁠yield on the 7.24% 2055 bond fell 1.5 basis ​points to 7.3955%, while the 40-year yield declined 2.5 ​bps to 7.4847%, both near three-week lows.Approximately 90% of Tata Mutual Fund‘s gilt fund is deployed in securities maturing in 14/15 years, 30 years and 40 years, the asset manager said in a note.

“The yield curve is quiet steep and largely resultant of geopolitical developments. We believe RBI ‌will continue to remain supportive and yields could drive south sharply once Middle East war comes to an end.”

Investors will ​now watch ​inflation readings from India ⁠and the United States due this week for fresh rate cues. A Reuters poll of 40 economists forecast India’s July retail inflation would rise to 4.50% ​from 4.38% in June.

RATES

India’s overnight index swaps ended mixed.

The one-year rose 1.5 bps to 5.7775%, inching higher after RBI’s liquidity draining operations.

The two-year swap rates ended little changed at 5.9525% and the five-year rate declined about 1 basis point to 6.2550%.



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