Bitcoin has led the rebound, breaking above $87,000 despite a Fed hike, Treasury yields around 5% and a setback around the CLARITY Act. The move has raised a key question for investors: can Bitcoin extend its recovery toward $100,000 and beyond?
Meanwhile, the crypto market has added more than $740 billion in value since the US Treasury announced last month that it would increase buybacks of long-dated bonds, according to CoinGecko data.“The crypto market reclaiming $3 trillion for the first time since January shows how quickly Bitcoin’s breakout has changed sentiment across the wider market,” said Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget.
“Bitcoin has led the recovery, with stronger spot and ETF demand providing the initial support before short covering helped accelerate the move. We are now seeing that momentum spill into other major crypto assets as well.”
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Rally gathers momentum, but leverage is risingLee said the more important question is what sustains the market from here.
Open interest and funding have risen alongside prices, suggesting leverage is building as traders chase the recovery. While the short squeeze provided significant fuel for the rally, forced buying can eventually fade, leaving spot demand to carry more of the move.
Also read: Bitcoin jumps nearly 5% to cross $85,000 on strong ETF inflows and institutional buying
“What makes the $3 trillion recovery particularly interesting is that it has happened despite a Fed hike, Treasury yields around 5% and the setback around the CLARITY Act,” Lee said.
“Bitcoin has not become immune to macro conditions, but crypto-specific flows have been strong enough to outweigh them for now. If spot demand keeps pace as leverage stabilises, that would give the broader recovery a firmer foundation.”
John O’Loghlen, managing director, APAC, at Coinbase, said it is difficult to attribute market movements to any single factor. He said recent momentum appears to reflect a combination of improving market sentiment, continued institutional engagement and growing confidence in the long-term development of the digital-asset ecosystem.
O’Loghlen continues to see digital assets becoming increasingly integrated into the global financial system, supported by stronger market infrastructure, greater participation from institutional investors and ongoing progress toward regulatory clarity in several jurisdictions.
Bitcoin price and market dynamics
At the last check, Bitcoin was trading at $85,840.47, up nearly 2%, with 24-hour trading volume of $50.5 billion on Binance. The token fluctuated between $87,363.76 and $84,118.50 over the past 24 hours.
At current levels, Bitcoin remains about 32% below its all-time high of $126,198.07, reached on October 6, 2025.
According to Lee, Bitcoin’s breakout despite a Fed hike, Treasury yields around 5% and the CLARITY setback is a notable signal in the current rally.
“I would not call it a macro decoupling yet. These risks were already well understood, while stronger spot and ETF demand has given Bitcoin enough support to absorb them. The breakout then forced significant short covering, which added to the upside momentum,” Lee said.
The bigger question now is how the composition of the rally is evolving.
Spot demand helped Bitcoin reach current levels, but open interest has continued to rise even after significant short liquidations, while funding has also moved higher.
That suggests fresh leverage is entering the market as traders chase the breakout. Bitcoin is holding up against macro pressure, but the rally is also becoming increasingly leveraged, putting greater focus on what happens after the $85,000 breakout.
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According to Lee, continued ETF and spot demand alongside stabilising leverage would suggest the rally still has a solid spot-driven base despite the tougher macro backdrop.
“If open interest and funding keep accelerating faster than spot demand, the risk of a leverage-driven pullback increases. Macro has not stopped mattering; for now, Bitcoin-specific demand has been strong enough to outweigh those pressures.”
Can Bitcoin reclaim $100K during ‘Uptober’?
According to Binance Research, Bitcoin’s latest rally has been supported by fresh spot buying rather than leverage alone, while the positioning backdrop has also improved.
Its September outlook highlighted a more challenging macro backdrop, with hike odds rising and the durability of the recovery dependent on whether spot and ETF demand can persist.
The momentum is notable, but the more important question is whether the current recovery marks a broader shift in how digital assets are being valued and integrated into the financial system.
“Bitcoin’s move back toward $100,000 will ultimately depend less on a single price milestone and more on whether institutional participation, ETF demand and underlying market activity continue to deepen,” Binance Research said.
“The recent rally provides a constructive signal, but its sustainability will be determined by the strength of underlying demand and the broader macro environment.”
In that sense, “Uptober” may be less about a particular price target and more about whether the market can sustain the structural momentum building across the digital-asset ecosystem, Binance Research said.
Disclosure: This article has been written by Kumar Gaurav, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Gaurav and their ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here